The U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision to strike down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) is sending shockwaves through cross-border trade, setting off a high-stakes scramble among importers to recover billions in duties while creating lingering legal and operational uncertainty.
The ruling, issued on February 20, found that IEEPA does not authorize the president to impose tariffs, including those linked to fentanyl enforcement, migration issues with Mexico, Canada, and China, as well as broader reciprocal tariffs. While the decision was clear on the legality of IEEPA-based tariffs, it left critical questions unresolved regarding refunds, timing, and future trade policy.
“This decision was broad and clear with respect to the legality of IEEPA-based tariffs,” said Elizabeth K. Lowe, partner at Venable LLP, during a recent webinar titled “The End of IEEPA Tariffs: Legal Implications, Refunds, and the Future of U.S. Tariff Policy.” “But the decision did not speak at all to remedies. That remains an open issue.”
Refunds Could Total $166 Billion, But Process Remains Murky
According to data cited by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) during the webinar, approximately $166 billion in tariffs across roughly 330,000 importers could be eligible for repayment. Yet, experts caution that the path to reimbursement will be far from straightforward.
CBP has proposed a new refund mechanism within its Automated Commercial Environment (ACE), which would require importers to submit claims for review and recalculation before Treasury-issued payments. Even under optimistic assumptions, the system may take at least 45 days to launch, with actual refunds likely taking months or potentially years once claims are submitted.
“The number of open questions right out of the gate exceeds the answers we have,” said Ashley Craig, partner at Venable LLP.
Court Expands Eligibility, But Limits Remain
Recent rulings from the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) have broadened the pool of eligible importers. On March 4, Judge Richard Eaton ordered CBP to liquidate or reliquidate all entries subject to IEEPA tariffs.
However, only entries that remain unliquidated or fall within a 90-day reliquidation window are clearly covered under the standard administrative process. For other entries, legal experts advise that filing claims at the CIT may be the most reliable path.
“There are importers taking a conservative approach by filing both protests and court claims,” said Lowe. “Filing at the CIT ensures access to refunds for all entries, regardless of liquidation status.”
Administration Resistance Could Delay Payouts
Despite the rulings, experts warn that the administration may resist or slow the refund process. Justice Department attempts to delay proceedings, combined with Treasury statements indicating possible year-long timelines for payouts, suggest that importers should prepare for extended delays.
“I expect the administration to push back and try to minimize payouts wherever possible,” said Wes Sudduth, another Venable partner.
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APM Terminals Expands Lázaro Cárdenas Capacity
In logistics news, APM Terminals has completed Phase II of its container terminal at Mexico’s Port of Lázaro Cárdenas and announced plans for a $350 million Phase III expansion.
Phase II upgrades added automation, electric cranes, and advanced cargo tracking systems, raising throughput capacity to 2 million TEUs annually. Phase III will extend the terminal’s quay by 450 meters, bringing the total to 1,200 meters, and expand yard capacity to accommodate larger vessels.
The expansion is expected to generate 4,000 construction jobs and more than 1,700 direct operational jobs by 2029, while supporting decarbonization through electrified equipment and renewable energy.
German Components Maker Opens $95 Million Plant in Querétaro
German industrial technology firm Phoenix Contact has inaugurated a new $95 million plant in Querétaro, creating 700 jobs. The facility, located in the Puerta Querétaro Industrial Park, will manufacture connectors, cables, and sensors for automation, industrial electronics, and smart manufacturing.
The plant, spanning 236,806 square feet, is designed to serve the U.S. market and improve delivery efficiency. Company officials highlighted the investment as part of a broader strategy to expand Phoenix Contact’s North American footprint and strengthen supply chain resilience.
Bottom Line
The Supreme Court’s ruling on IEEPA tariffs has initiated a wave of legal, logistical, and financial challenges for importers, with billions in potential refunds at stake and a prolonged, uncertain recovery process ahead. Meanwhile, infrastructure investments in Mexican ports and manufacturing continue to reshape regional supply chains, signaling growth and opportunity amid regulatory turbulence.
